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Why the UK’s fertility rate keeps falling – and what it means if you’re trying now

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Article produced in association with Spital Clinic

The UK’s fertility rate has fallen for a third consecutive year to the lowest level ever recorded. That headline gets written every year, and it is easy to read it as a purely demographic story.

For anyone currently trying for a baby, the figure is something more practical: the conditions that produced the statistic are the same conditions shaping your own chances.

The decline has a clear pattern, and it is mostly not about couples being unable to conceive.

The change sits in when people start trying, and in what happens to fertility during the years by which most are now ready to have children.

What the numbers actually show

Figures from the ONS put the total fertility rate in England and Wales at 1.41 children per woman in 2024, down from 1.42 in 2023. The rate has been in overall decline since 2010 and has now recorded its lowest value three years running.

The figure sounds abstract until you compare it with the replacement level of 2.1 – the rate required for a population to sustain itself without net migration.

The UK has been below that line since the early 1970s, but the gap is now wider than at any point on record.

The data also shows where the decline is happening. Age-specific fertility rates for women in their twenties are the lowest of any generation since 1920. Rates for women in their thirties are holding up, and in some parts of the country rising.

Mothers are having babies later, not necessarily in smaller numbers. The average age of a first-time mother in England and Wales is now 31.0, up from 30.9 the year before. Regional variation matters too: London sits at 1.35, the West Midlands at 1.59.

Why the rate is falling

None of this is new. Every decade since the 1970s has seen the same trend, and it has accelerated in recent years. What has changed is the pace.

The shift is primarily social: delayed partnership formation, high housing costs, expensive childcare, and careers structured around full-time work through the exact years fertility is easiest.

The same pattern shows up across the EU, where the total fertility rate sat at 1.5 in 2022.

These forces compound. People meet later, partner later, feel financially ready later, and start trying later.

For many couples, first attempts happen in the early thirties, by which point fertility has begun its slow and uneven decline. A low national TFR is the population-level consequence of millions of individual timing decisions made under real-world constraints.

What this means for individuals trying now

Around one in seven couples in the UK will struggle to conceive naturally.

That figure has been stable for decades; the population of people seeking help, however, has grown – not because fertility itself has worsened, but because more people are trying during the window where it becomes harder.

UK fertility treatment data from the HFEA shows around 52,400 patients had over 77,500 IVF cycles in 2023, making 1 in every 32 UK births IVF-conceived.

The average age of a first-time IVF patient in the UK is now just over 35 – nearly six years older than the average first-time mother in the population overall.

NHS-funded IVF cycles have fallen from 40 per cent of the total in 2012 to 27 per cent in 2022, and to 24 per cent in England in 2023. The private sector has absorbed the rest.

When to get checked – and what it involves

Current NHS advice is to see a GP after a year of regular unprotected sex without a pregnancy, or sooner if you are 36 or older.

That threshold reflects the fact that every additional six months of trying is more clinically informative in the years when fertility is starting to shift.

The first set of investigations is usually straightforward.

For women, this typically covers hormone testing (AMH, FSH, LH, TSH and prolactin), rubella immunity, chlamydia screening, a mid-luteal progesterone and a transvaginal ultrasound.

For men, a semen analysis is the first step.

A private trying-to-conceive screening covers the same ground without the NHS waiting list, with the advantage that results can be reviewed in a single consultation.

The purpose of early screening is not to diagnose infertility – most couples conceive naturally within a year or two – but to identify specific, treatable issues before more time passes.

The fertility window is narrower than most people think

The uncomfortable truth behind the falling TFR is that the biological fertility window has not changed. The subtle decline begins around age 32, and accelerates from the late thirties.

The chance of natural conception in any given month is substantially lower at 40 than at 30, and falls sharply through the early forties.

IVF success rates track the same curve.

For patients aged 18 to 34, the average birth rate per embryo transferred was around 35 per cent in 2022; for those aged 40 to 42, around 10 per cent using their own eggs.

This is why the growth areas in UK fertility care are now pre-conception screening and elective egg freezing – HFEA data shows egg storage cycles rose from 4,700 in 2022 to 6,900 in 2023, one of the fastest-growing treatments in the sector.

A focused fertility consultation earlier in the timeline – in the late twenties or very early thirties, before there is a known problem – tends to produce better decisions than a consultation triggered by a year of trying without success.

The wider picture

The UK’s falling fertility rate is the product of a society that has reorganised when people have children, not one in which couples have become less capable of conceiving.

There is no need for alarm in that finding. The practical takeaway is that the old default of ‘wait and see’ assumes a timeline no longer matching the one most people now live.

For anyone currently trying, or planning to try soon, the single most useful move is to understand your own numbers earlier than previous generations did.

The national trend is not going to reverse quickly.

A clear picture of your own fertility window – and the information to use it well – is within reach in a way the headline statistics are not.

If you are trying to conceive or thinking about starting, a structured pre-conception review is a reasonable first step.

Disclaimer: This article is produced for informational purposes only and does not constitute medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Clinical guidance referenced reflects published NHS, ONS and HFEA data as at April 2026. Individual circumstances vary; readers are advised to consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting on any information in this article. This piece was produced in association with Spital Clinic, which provided background clinical information for editorial purposes. Hyperlinks to external sources are included for reference only and do not represent an endorsement of any product, service or organisation.

Insight

UK reviews surrogacy firm over rejected insurance claims

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The UK government is reviewing a surrogacy firm after complaints that medical insurance claims involving surrogates in Mexico were rejected.

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) is considering whether UK-based provider My Surrogacy Journey should remain listed on gov.uk as one of four domestic surrogacy agencies available to intended parents.

The review follows allegations concerning its Mexican sister company, where surrogates are based.

Health minister Diana Johnson said: “The department is looking into the allegations about My Surrogacy Journey.

“As part of that assessment, the department will consider whether it is appropriate for that company to remain on the gov.uk list of agencies.”

Emails sent by My Surrogacy Journey chief executive Michael Johnson-Ellis and seen by the Guardian suggest multiple surrogate women in Mexico had their insurance claims rejected.

The emails also suggest 300 couples using the company were moved to a new insurance provider because of the increased risk of claims being rejected.

Commercial surrogacy is banned in the UK, where only altruistic arrangements are permitted.

My Surrogacy Journey operates a not-for-profit UK branch alongside for-profit sister companies in Mexico and the US. All three companies have the same owners and chief executives.

The reported insurance issues relate to surrogacy arrangements in Mexico.

One couple told the Guardian they paid tens of thousands of pounds to cover medical costs after their surrogate had a hysterectomy during childbirth and an insurance claim was refused.

The Guardian said it understood that at least five sets of parents said they had to cover medical costs after insurance claims were rejected.

In an email to the couple whose surrogate underwent a hysterectomy, Johnson-Ellis wrote: “We have already told you that the insurance companies have been declining some of the claims and we are actively working with the broker to get this issue resolved but you should also consider that they may not be paid out and there is nothing we are able to do to change this …

“We appreciate this is not an insignificant sum but this genuinely is out of our control.”

Johnson-Ellis also said the company had switched insurance providers, writing: “We’re also managing this for 300 other journeys, which is a complex position to be in.”

Lawyers acting for My Surrogacy Journey said the company did not comment on individual cases, but that existing insurance policies were in place and claims continued to be accepted and processed.

They said the company understood that a small number of claims had been rejected and was supporting people seeking to resolve those claims with an insurer.

Under the surrogacy arrangements, intended parents are understood to be contractually required to cover medical costs not paid by an insurer.

The couple said they had been recommended the company’s Mexico option. Its website advertises that intended parents using the route can have a baby in “under 18 months”.

They said they were told the UK route could take up to five years and that the US option was much more expensive.

Lawyers for My Surrogacy Journey said prospective parents are given information about typical timelines, costs, legal frameworks and practical considerations, and that the 18-month timeframe is indicative only.

The couple said their surrogate developed placenta accreta, a serious condition in which the placenta attaches to the wall of the uterus.

Emails from Johnson-Ellis acknowledged that the insurance provider investigated the birth after the surrogate experienced health complications.

The parents are considering legal action, while the Guardian said it understood at least four other couples were reviewing their options.

Phil Brickell, MP for Bolton West, raised concerns in parliament about a separate couple who had used My Surrogacy Journey.

He said: “Two of my constituents recently travelled to Mexico, where their children were born by surrogacy.

“Those births were facilitated by a company called My Surrogacy Journey, which is listed on gov.uk.

“While in Mexico, they had repeated traumatic experiences with the company relating to issues including insurance for their children, accusations of bullying towards staff and repeated efforts to silence any constructive criticism.

“I understand that other members of this house have received similar complaints.”

Brickell called for My Surrogacy Journey to be removed from gov.uk pending a review by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority.

Lawyers acting for My Surrogacy Journey said the company was communicating with DHSC and was confident any issues could be resolved.

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Fertility

Spain football federation partnership to offer players egg-freezing and fertility treatment

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Spain’s football federation will offer national team players egg-freezing and fertility treatment through a clinic partnership running until 2029.

The agreement with the Tambre clinic in Madrid will give Spain’s World Cup winners more options to pursue motherhood when they feel the time is right.

The Royal Spanish Football Federation (RFEF) said the agreement covers all national team players, including the futsal team, as well as Primera Division referees and assistants and all other federation employees.

It is the latest policy introduced by the RFEF as it seeks to lead the way in work-life balance and maternity protection.

The federation has also introduced measures allowing players to travel with their children during major tournaments. The scheme was extended to the men’s team during their successful World Cup campaign in North America this past summer.

RFEF president Rafael Louzán said: “If Spain and its national teams are the best in the world on the pitch, they must also be the best in matters such as work-life balance.

“This is a new, comprehensive and pioneering benefit that extends to all federation employees. Today is a great day for the entire Spanish football family.”

The agreement followed a direct request from players after discussions with national team captains, including London City Lionesses midfielder Alexia Putellas.

Putellas told Spanish outlet El País: “As a group of captains, we had a concern — because experiencing a World Cup is vital for a player — regarding the difficulty of reconciling that with the desire to become a mother.”

“It’s a desire I didn’t originally have but developed some time ago.

“Thanks to the incredible work done by the federation, an agreement has been reached with a clinic allowing us to freeze our eggs while we are still active players, for as long as we wish.

“For me, this is a huge step forward; the federation understands that you are serving your country in a way that runs counter to your biological clock — that you can’t simply pause your career to become a mother because you need your body to do your job.”

The announcement follows Chelsea becoming the first Women’s Super League club to offer similar fertility treatment options to its players.

The move has also drawn criticism.

Spanish triple jumper Ana Peleteiro-Compaoré Brión said on Instagram: “The problem obviously isn’t freezing eggs.

“The problem is: why does the institution these women work for have an interest in financing them to delay their motherhood?

“And here there’s a problem that for me changes absolutely everything.

“Is this measure intended to make it easier for women to be mothers or is it intended to make it easier for them not to be while they’re playing?”

Spain are the current world champions in both the women’s and men’s games.

The women will attempt to defend their title at the 2027 World Cup in Brazil next summer.

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Pregnancy

Paracetamol use may impact future fertility, studies suggest

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Paracetamol use in pregnancy was not linked to autism or ADHD, while separate research found reproductive differences in girls exposed before birth.

One study analysed health records from more than 120,000 children and found no increased risk of autism following prenatal paracetamol exposure.

A separate analysis of nearly 100,000 children also found no increased risk of ADHD among those born to mothers who used the painkiller during pregnancy.

Researchers from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority examined electronic health records covering pregnancies between January 2001 and December 2023.

The autism analysis included 124,333 children, who were nine years old on average and split almost evenly between males and females. There were 3,445 autism diagnoses, representing 2.8 per cent of the group.

The ADHD analysis involved 97,285 children, who were seven years old on average and also split evenly between males and females. There were 5,168 ADHD diagnoses, representing 5.3 per cent.

Women prescribed paracetamol during pregnancy were more likely to be older and have pre-existing conditions including psychiatric disorders, as well as reasons for taking the drug such as infection, fever or chronic pain.

No association was found between prenatal paracetamol exposure and either autism or ADHD.

The findings did not differ according to the trimester in which paracetamol was taken or whether use was intermittent or daily. Advanced maternal age, defined as pregnancy in women over 35, did not alter the findings.

The researchers wrote: “Paracetamol remains a safe and essential analgesic [pain reliever] and antipyretic [fever reducer] during pregnancy, whereas alternatives, such as NSAIDs and opioids carry well-documented risks.

“Unwarranted reluctance to use paracetamol could lead to undertreatment of pain and fever, or the use of more harmful alternatives, both posing risks to the pregnancy and developing fetus.”

The authors said women should assess paracetamol use with guidance from their doctor.

A separate study involving 685 pregnant women without pre-existing conditions and 302 infant daughters found associations between prenatal paracetamol exposure and differences in reproductive organs and hormone levels.

Researchers from Copenhagen University Hospital enrolled the women during their first trimester and assessed them during the first trimester, third trimester and again when their babies were three months old.

At around three months, infants experience a temporary rise in reproductive hormones sometimes called mini-puberty.

Pregnant participants completed questionnaires every two weeks about their use of pain medicines including paracetamol. Infant girls underwent ultrasound scans of their reproductive organs and blood tests to measure hormone levels.

Researchers also examined a separate group of 1,210 girls followed from infancy to adolescence whose mothers reported paracetamol use during the third trimester.

Three-month-old girls exposed to paracetamol before birth had an average 40 per cent smaller ovarian volume, 13 per cent smaller uterine volume and 23 per cent fewer ovarian follicles.

Girls exposed during the first trimester also had lower levels of Anti-Müllerian hormone, a marker of ovarian function.

Among the older girls, those exposed before birth were more likely to have smaller uteruses at puberty and smaller ovaries during their teenage years.

Dr Margit Bistrup Fischer, lead study author and postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Growth and Reproduction at Rigshospitalet hospital in Denmark, said: “Animal studies have demonstrated that impaired formation of ovarian follicles can lead to reduced fertility and earlier reproductive aging.

“Whether the differences observed in our study have implications for fertility and age at menopause in humans remains unknown and will require long-term follow-up of the girls in our cohort.”

She cautioned that women who had used paracetamol during pregnancy “should not be alarmed by our findings”, as the study found associations rather than direct causation and outcomes for individual women and children are unclear.

“Importantly, our study does not evaluate whether [acetaminophen] causes reproductive problems, nor does it provide evidence that prenatal exposure affects future fertility or age at menopause,” she said.

“Although we observed similar associations in an independent cohort, long-term follow-up is needed to determine whether these early-life differences have any clinical significance later in life.”

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