Insight
Why the UK’s fertility rate keeps falling – and what it means if you’re trying now

Article produced in association with Spital Clinic
The UK’s fertility rate has fallen for a third consecutive year to the lowest level ever recorded. That headline gets written every year, and it is easy to read it as a purely demographic story.
For anyone currently trying for a baby, the figure is something more practical: the conditions that produced the statistic are the same conditions shaping your own chances.
The decline has a clear pattern, and it is mostly not about couples being unable to conceive.
The change sits in when people start trying, and in what happens to fertility during the years by which most are now ready to have children.
What the numbers actually show
Figures from the ONS put the total fertility rate in England and Wales at 1.41 children per woman in 2024, down from 1.42 in 2023. The rate has been in overall decline since 2010 and has now recorded its lowest value three years running.
The figure sounds abstract until you compare it with the replacement level of 2.1 – the rate required for a population to sustain itself without net migration.
The UK has been below that line since the early 1970s, but the gap is now wider than at any point on record.
The data also shows where the decline is happening. Age-specific fertility rates for women in their twenties are the lowest of any generation since 1920. Rates for women in their thirties are holding up, and in some parts of the country rising.
Mothers are having babies later, not necessarily in smaller numbers. The average age of a first-time mother in England and Wales is now 31.0, up from 30.9 the year before. Regional variation matters too: London sits at 1.35, the West Midlands at 1.59.
Why the rate is falling
None of this is new. Every decade since the 1970s has seen the same trend, and it has accelerated in recent years. What has changed is the pace.
The shift is primarily social: delayed partnership formation, high housing costs, expensive childcare, and careers structured around full-time work through the exact years fertility is easiest.
The same pattern shows up across the EU, where the total fertility rate sat at 1.5 in 2022.
These forces compound. People meet later, partner later, feel financially ready later, and start trying later.
For many couples, first attempts happen in the early thirties, by which point fertility has begun its slow and uneven decline. A low national TFR is the population-level consequence of millions of individual timing decisions made under real-world constraints.
What this means for individuals trying now
Around one in seven couples in the UK will struggle to conceive naturally.
That figure has been stable for decades; the population of people seeking help, however, has grown – not because fertility itself has worsened, but because more people are trying during the window where it becomes harder.
UK fertility treatment data from the HFEA shows around 52,400 patients had over 77,500 IVF cycles in 2023, making 1 in every 32 UK births IVF-conceived.
The average age of a first-time IVF patient in the UK is now just over 35 – nearly six years older than the average first-time mother in the population overall.
NHS-funded IVF cycles have fallen from 40 per cent of the total in 2012 to 27 per cent in 2022, and to 24 per cent in England in 2023. The private sector has absorbed the rest.
When to get checked – and what it involves
Current NHS advice is to see a GP after a year of regular unprotected sex without a pregnancy, or sooner if you are 36 or older.
That threshold reflects the fact that every additional six months of trying is more clinically informative in the years when fertility is starting to shift.
The first set of investigations is usually straightforward.
For women, this typically covers hormone testing (AMH, FSH, LH, TSH and prolactin), rubella immunity, chlamydia screening, a mid-luteal progesterone and a transvaginal ultrasound.
For men, a semen analysis is the first step.
A private trying-to-conceive screening covers the same ground without the NHS waiting list, with the advantage that results can be reviewed in a single consultation.
The purpose of early screening is not to diagnose infertility – most couples conceive naturally within a year or two – but to identify specific, treatable issues before more time passes.
The fertility window is narrower than most people think
The uncomfortable truth behind the falling TFR is that the biological fertility window has not changed. The subtle decline begins around age 32, and accelerates from the late thirties.
The chance of natural conception in any given month is substantially lower at 40 than at 30, and falls sharply through the early forties.
IVF success rates track the same curve.
For patients aged 18 to 34, the average birth rate per embryo transferred was around 35 per cent in 2022; for those aged 40 to 42, around 10 per cent using their own eggs.
This is why the growth areas in UK fertility care are now pre-conception screening and elective egg freezing – HFEA data shows egg storage cycles rose from 4,700 in 2022 to 6,900 in 2023, one of the fastest-growing treatments in the sector.
A focused fertility consultation earlier in the timeline – in the late twenties or very early thirties, before there is a known problem – tends to produce better decisions than a consultation triggered by a year of trying without success.
The wider picture
The UK’s falling fertility rate is the product of a society that has reorganised when people have children, not one in which couples have become less capable of conceiving.
There is no need for alarm in that finding. The practical takeaway is that the old default of ‘wait and see’ assumes a timeline no longer matching the one most people now live.
For anyone currently trying, or planning to try soon, the single most useful move is to understand your own numbers earlier than previous generations did.
The national trend is not going to reverse quickly.
A clear picture of your own fertility window – and the information to use it well – is within reach in a way the headline statistics are not.
If you are trying to conceive or thinking about starting, a structured pre-conception review is a reasonable first step.
Disclaimer: This article is produced for informational purposes only and does not constitute medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Clinical guidance referenced reflects published NHS, ONS and HFEA data as at April 2026. Individual circumstances vary; readers are advised to consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting on any information in this article. This piece was produced in association with Spital Clinic, which provided background clinical information for editorial purposes. Hyperlinks to external sources are included for reference only and do not represent an endorsement of any product, service or organisation.
Insight
Women with birth trauma face 2.5x higher healthcare costs – study

Women with childbirth-related PTSD had healthcare costs 2.5 times higher than women without PTSD from six to 12 months after birth, a report found.
The analysis estimated that early prevention of traumatic births and childbirth-related post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) could save the NHS around £26m each year.
Women with PTSD were also less likely to have returned to work by 12 months after giving birth, suggesting potential longer-term employment and economic effects.
The report from City St George’s, University of London was launched at an All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Birth Trauma event on 10 September 2026.
Researchers calculated the potential NHS savings using the number of births reported in NHS hospitals in 2024-25 and the UK prevalence of childbirth-related PTSD.
Around one in 20 women in the UK develop PTSD following childbirth, while recent research has shown that the condition remains underdiagnosed.
The findings draw on research that tracked more than 2,000 women in England and Scotland from pregnancy to two years after birth. Researchers assessed mental health, use of health services and employment outcomes.
The research included assessments of childbirth-related PTSD and PTSD arising from other traumatic experiences. It also included a separate Birth Trauma Association survey examining women’s experiences of birth trauma.
Between six and 12 months after birth, healthcare and support service costs for women with childbirth-related PTSD were 2.5 times those of women without PTSD.
Women with low or moderate symptoms, including those reporting one or two PTSD symptoms, also had higher healthcare service costs than women without PTSD.
Just over half, 53 per cent, of women with PTSD had returned to work by 12 months after giving birth, compared with 68 per cent of women without symptoms.
Women with PTSD were more likely to be referred for mental health support, but more than half received no referral.
Those whose PTSD followed a traumatic birth also had slightly higher healthcare costs than women whose PTSD resulted from other traumatic experiences.
The researchers called for routine PTSD assessment and treatment during pregnancy and after childbirth, alongside greater access to specialist perinatal mental health services.
They also recommended training healthcare staff in perinatal trauma, trauma-informed care and identifying women at risk of PTSD.
The report said further research was needed to establish whether screening, treatments and trauma-informed care pathways are effective and evidence based.
The work follows the APPG’s 2024 Birth Trauma Inquiry, which highlighted the effects of birth trauma on women and families and called for evidence on its wider public health and societal costs.
The report focused primarily on healthcare use and did not attempt to calculate all costs associated with birth trauma and postnatal PTSD, including wider employment, family and societal effects.
Insight
UK reviews surrogacy firm over rejected insurance claims

The UK government is reviewing a surrogacy firm after complaints that medical insurance claims involving surrogates in Mexico were rejected.
The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) is considering whether UK-based provider My Surrogacy Journey should remain listed on gov.uk as one of four domestic surrogacy agencies available to intended parents.
The review follows allegations concerning its Mexican sister company, where surrogates are based.
Health minister Diana Johnson said: “The department is looking into the allegations about My Surrogacy Journey.
“As part of that assessment, the department will consider whether it is appropriate for that company to remain on the gov.uk list of agencies.”
Emails sent by My Surrogacy Journey chief executive Michael Johnson-Ellis and seen by the Guardian suggest multiple surrogate women in Mexico had their insurance claims rejected.
The emails also suggest 300 couples using the company were moved to a new insurance provider because of the increased risk of claims being rejected.
Commercial surrogacy is banned in the UK, where only altruistic arrangements are permitted.
My Surrogacy Journey operates a not-for-profit UK branch alongside for-profit sister companies in Mexico and the US. All three companies have the same owners and chief executives.
The reported insurance issues relate to surrogacy arrangements in Mexico.
One couple told the Guardian they paid tens of thousands of pounds to cover medical costs after their surrogate had a hysterectomy during childbirth and an insurance claim was refused.
The Guardian said it understood that at least five sets of parents said they had to cover medical costs after insurance claims were rejected.
In an email to the couple whose surrogate underwent a hysterectomy, Johnson-Ellis wrote: “We have already told you that the insurance companies have been declining some of the claims and we are actively working with the broker to get this issue resolved but you should also consider that they may not be paid out and there is nothing we are able to do to change this …
“We appreciate this is not an insignificant sum but this genuinely is out of our control.”
Johnson-Ellis also said the company had switched insurance providers, writing: “We’re also managing this for 300 other journeys, which is a complex position to be in.”
Lawyers acting for My Surrogacy Journey said the company did not comment on individual cases, but that existing insurance policies were in place and claims continued to be accepted and processed.
They said the company understood that a small number of claims had been rejected and was supporting people seeking to resolve those claims with an insurer.
Under the surrogacy arrangements, intended parents are understood to be contractually required to cover medical costs not paid by an insurer.
The couple said they had been recommended the company’s Mexico option. Its website advertises that intended parents using the route can have a baby in “under 18 months”.
They said they were told the UK route could take up to five years and that the US option was much more expensive.
Lawyers for My Surrogacy Journey said prospective parents are given information about typical timelines, costs, legal frameworks and practical considerations, and that the 18-month timeframe is indicative only.
The couple said their surrogate developed placenta accreta, a serious condition in which the placenta attaches to the wall of the uterus.
Emails from Johnson-Ellis acknowledged that the insurance provider investigated the birth after the surrogate experienced health complications.
The parents are considering legal action, while the Guardian said it understood at least four other couples were reviewing their options.
Phil Brickell, MP for Bolton West, raised concerns in parliament about a separate couple who had used My Surrogacy Journey.
He said: “Two of my constituents recently travelled to Mexico, where their children were born by surrogacy.
“Those births were facilitated by a company called My Surrogacy Journey, which is listed on gov.uk.
“While in Mexico, they had repeated traumatic experiences with the company relating to issues including insurance for their children, accusations of bullying towards staff and repeated efforts to silence any constructive criticism.
“I understand that other members of this house have received similar complaints.”
Brickell called for My Surrogacy Journey to be removed from gov.uk pending a review by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority.
Lawyers acting for My Surrogacy Journey said the company was communicating with DHSC and was confident any issues could be resolved.
Insight
Research uncovers potential new target for breast cancer therapy

Targeting CD1d altered immune cells slowed tumour growth and improved immunotherapy responses in mouse models of breast cancer, researchers found.
The findings suggest blocking the molecule could make the environment around breast tumours more favourable to anti-cancer immune responses.
Further work is needed to understand how these immune changes occur and how the approach could be safely used in patients.
Researchers from King’s College London, the Francis Crick Institute and University College London investigated how immune cells inside breast tumours influence cancer growth.
They focused on myeloid cells, a group of immune cells found in large numbers within tumours that can either support an immune attack against cancer or contribute to tumour growth and immune evasion.
The team examined CD1d, a molecule found on the surface of myeloid and other immune and tissue cells that helps regulate immune responses.
When CD1d was genetically removed from cells in a mouse model of breast cancer, the mice were more resistant to tumour growth. Researchers also saw changes in myeloid cell populations, including increased activity among cells that can help attack cancer.
The team then blocked CD1d using an antibody and again observed changes in myeloid cells and slower tumour growth. Blocking CD1d also improved responses to immunotherapy in the mouse model.
Researchers used single-cell RNA sequencing, a technique that examines gene activity in individual cells, to investigate the immune changes in more detail.
They identified a population of myeloid cells called monocytes that expressed genes associated with inflammation, an important part of the immune response. These cells were particularly important in restricting tumour growth in the mouse models.
A similar pattern of gene activity was identified in data from human breast cancer tumours. Its presence in myeloid cells was associated with positive responses to immunotherapy in breast cancer patients.
However, the findings in people were based on gene expression data and did not test CD1d-targeting treatment in patients.
Professor Patricia Barral, professor of immunobiology at King’s College London and senior author of the study, said: “Many breast cancers do not respond well to current immunotherapies.
“Our findings reveal a previously unrecognised mechanism by which immune cells within tumours are regulated.
“While CD1d is best known for helping immune cells recognise lipid molecules, we found that it also plays a role in shaping the behaviour of myeloid cells within tumours.
“These findings suggest that targeting the immune cells that surround and support tumours could boost anti-cancer immunity and potentially improve treatment responses in the future.”
Researchers now plan to investigate how the immune changes occur and how they can be safely harnessed in patients.
They also want to examine whether targeting CD1d could enhance existing treatments and influence treatment responses in different cancer types.
The work was supported by UKRI BBSRC, Breast Cancer Now and the Cancer Research UK City of London Centre.
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