Uterine cancer cases to surge 53 per cent

Uterine cancer cases could rise by as much as 53 per cent by 2050, with diets high in junk food and obesity rates believed to be driving the increase.

Deaths from the disease are forecast to rise by between 83 and 98 per cent over the next 25 years among women aged 18 to 84.

The rate of increase is expected to outpace that of bowel cancer, which is growing by 2.4 per cent each year in under-50s but declining overall by about one per cent annually.

Meanwhile, average deaths from bowel cancer are seeing an annual decline of roughly 1 per cent – despite the rising toll of younger victims.

Dr Chris van Tulleken, expert in infectious disease and global health at University College London, said: “We have more than a dozen good quality studies indicating a link between cancer and ultra-processed foods.”

Black women are predicted to be disproportionately affected, with case numbers expected to climb by 53 per cent compared to 28.6 per cent in white women.

Deaths among black women could rise by 97.9 per cent, compared to 83.6 per cent in white women.

Researchers from Columbia University in the US built a model to help predict future rates of uterine cancer across the US.

The model was based on a population sample of women aged 18 to 84, who were born over the last 100 years.

They tracked disease incidence over the women’s lifetimes, including uterine cancer, and used annual increases in disease to project future diagnoses.

Lead author Dr Jason D Wright said the projections do not account for future advances in prevention or treatment that could reduce mortality.

The higher rates seen in black women may be linked to more aggressive forms of the disease and delays in diagnosis and treatment, according to scientists.

The overall increase is thought to be driven by obesity.

Cancer Research UK estimates that a third of womb cancer cases in the UK are linked to being overweight or obese.

Excess weight raises levels of hormones like fasting insulin and testosterone, which are known to encourage tumour growth in the uterus.

Obesity levels have doubled globally in both adults and children since 1990, with the rise in ultra-processed food consumption widely blamed.

These foods – such as cakes, crisps and ready meals – are typically high in calories, sugar, salt and fat, and usually include at least one ingredient not found in a standard kitchen.

Uterine cancer is the most common gynaecological cancer in high-income countries and the fourth most common among women in the UK. C

ancer Research UK estimates that 34 per cent of UK uterine cancer cases are preventable.

The researchers tested a screening scenario in which women were invited for checks to detect early signs of disease.

The approach was most effective when screening began at age 55, with rates of cancer falling for up to 15 years in white women and 16 years in black women.

Lead author of the study Dr Jason D Wright said: “The testing suggests that if there was an effective screening test, we may be able to substantially reduce the burden of disease.”

The findings come amid broader concerns about rising cancer rates in younger people.

Bowel cancer is increasing in under-50s in 27 of 50 countries studied, with England recording an average 3.6 per cent annual rise in younger adults.

Roughly 2 per cent yearly increases have also been reported in the US. Cancer Research UK figures show that diagnoses have risen by up to 23 per cent among people aged 20 to 49.

While the disease is known to be linked to obesity, experts note it also appears in fit and healthy patients.